The Significance of COP30 and the Concept of “Economic Denial”
One of the most critical global events of 2025 will be the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), scheduled to take place in Belém, located in Brazil’s Amazon region.¹ Brazil plays a dual role on the global stage: it is home to the world’s largest tropical rainforests while also being a major producer of fossil fuels. This dual position makes COP30 significant not only for shaping climate policies but also for influencing economic priorities and geopolitical Dynamics.
The conference president, André Corrêa do Lago, highlighted the concept of “economic denial” in an interview with The Guardian.² According to do Lago, the traditional form of “scientific denial” — claiming that “climate change does not exist” or “global warming is not human-induced” — has largely lost credibility on a global scale. In its place, a new form of resistance has emerged: one that exaggerates the costs of climate action or advocates delaying necessary transformations.²
According to reports by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), achieving a low-carbon and climate-resilient development pathway will require at least $1.3 trillion in annual financing.³ However, the current funding mechanisms remain insufficient to meet this demand. As a result, COP30 is increasingly seen as a critical turning point — one where climate diplomacy and the global economy intersect.
According to an analysis by El País, hosting a climate conference in the heart of the Amazon Basin carries strong symbolic significance for global environmental protection.⁴ However, it may also spark controversy due to challenges related to local community participation, logistical constraints, and the high costs of organizing such an event.
Economical Denial- a new form of resistance
In the 1990s and early 2000s, the dominant narrative surrounding climate change centered on claims such as “climate change does not exist” or “global warming is not caused by human activity.” In the literature, this approach became known as “scientific denial.” However, as scientific evidence has grown significantly stronger, these narratives have largely become marginalized. In their place, what COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago describes as “economic denial” has taken center stage.
Economic denial based on three main arguments: exaggeration of costs, delaying strategies, and the emphasis on societal burdens.⁵ According to reports by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the majority of newly developed solar and wind projects are now cheaper than fossil fuel power plants.⁶ This evidence undermines claims that climate action is prohibitively expensive.
Brazil’s state-owned company Petrobras’ plans to increase oil production by 2030 exemplify this contradictory situation. According to the Financial Times, this move conflicts with the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement.⁷ While Greenpeace has strongly criticized the plan, reports from WWF indicate that inaction on climate change could lead to significant long-term economic losses worldwide.⁸
Energy Paradigm Shift – Distributed, Resilient, and Clean Energy
The energy transition is now not only an environmental necessity but also an economic reality. According to IRENA reports, the majority of newly developed renewable energy projects are cheaper than fossil fuels.⁶ Therefore, the paradigm discussed at COP30 emphasizes a shift from fossil fuel–centric systems toward distributed, resilient, and clean energy.
Research by The Guardian on Latin America shows that solar energy cooperatives developed by local communities provide both environmental and social benefits.⁹ The roadmap presented by RMI for the Caribbean also shows that solar and battery systems could end dependence on fossil fuel imports.¹⁰ Reports by the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) emphasizes that this transition must be considered alongside energy security concerns.¹¹
PART 4 Geopolitical Context – Energy Security and Crises
Following the Russia-Ukraine war, Europe has painfully experienced the vulnerability of energy dependence. According to European Commission reports, the EU’s renewable energy capacity has, for the first time, surpassed gas imports.¹² China, meanwhile, has become the world leader in solar panel and battery production.¹³ The United States continues to promote renewable energy investments through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), while remaining one of the largest fossil fuel exporters.¹⁴
Brazil’s plans to increase oil production through Petrobras while hosting COP30 present a significant contradiction. According to the Financial Times, 85 percent of these fields are incompatible with the 1.5°C target.⁷ IEA reports emphasize that distributed energy systems have the potential to fundamentally reshape energy security paradigms.
Financial Crisis – The $1.3 Trillion Gap
According to UNFCCC documents, developing countries require at least $1.3 trillion annually to achieve their climate targets.³ In contrast, the $300 billion commitment announced at COP29 covers only about one-quarter of this need.¹⁶ The future of the Loss and Damage Fund will be one of the most important topics on the COP30 agenda.
Brazil has also proposed the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) fund.¹⁷ Reuters analysis emphasizes that the private sector must play a role in closing this funding gap.¹⁸ The “Call to Action” statement published by the Global Renewables Alliance urges companies to take responsibility across seven priority areas.¹
Responses from NGOs and International Organizations – A Critical Perspective
Prior to COP30, Greenpeace strongly criticized Petrobras’ oil production plans.⁸ WWF reports highlighted the economic costs of inaction.⁸ However, some critics argue that large NGOs can be vulnerable to greenwashing due to partnerships with the private sector. While WWF has denied these claims, the debate continues.
Friends of the Earth Latin America noted the exclusion of local communities.²⁰ IMF and World Bank reports have drawn attention to the link between climate finance and debt
crises.²¹ The Global Renewables Alliance published a statement emphasizing the role of the private sector at COP30.¹⁹
Social Dimension – Peoples, Indigenous Communities, and a Just Transition
According to an analysis by El País, Amazonian indigenous communities have not been adequately represented in COP30 preparations.⁴ Friends of the Earth emphasized that climate justice is closely linked to communities’ right to self-determination.²⁰ The IMF warned that without a just transition, debt crises could deepen.²¹ RMI’s Caribbean report highlighted the positive impacts of renewable energy investments on local employment and energy bills.¹⁰
Conclusion – Expectations, Scenarios, and Pung’s Perspective
The success of COP30 will depend on how effectively economic denial is addressed, how the financing gap is closed, and how a just transition is implemented. In an optimistic scenario, new funding mechanisms become operational and the narrative of economic denial recedes. In a realistic scenario, strong rhetoric persists, but the financing gap remains. In a pessimistic scenario, COP30 is overshadowed by Brazil’s oil production plans.
From Pung’s perspective, COP30 is not only a technical conference; it is also a space where regimes of truth are tested. If the demands of indigenous peoples, workers, and independent NGOs are not brought to the table, the energy transition will fail to produce a truly societal transformation.
References
- The Guardian, “COP30 is coming to Brazil, and the president knows he is at a crossroads.”
- The Guardian, “Economic denial: the new climate battle.”
- UNFCCC, “Climate Finance Needs of Developing Countries Report.”
- El País, “El reto de la COP30 en la Amazonía.”
- Carbon Brief, “COP30 president warns of new ‘economic denial’ in climate fight.”
- IRENA, “Renewable Power Generation Costs Report.”
- Financial Times, “Petrobras’s expansion plans pose climate paradox.”
- WWF, “The Economic Costs of Climate Inaction.”
- The Guardian, “Community-led solar projects in Latin America.”
- RMI, “A Blueprint for Caribbean Energy Independence.”
- WEF & IEA, “Energy Security in the Transition.”
- European Commission, “EU’s Renewable Energy Capacity Report.”
- IEA, “Energy Technology Perspectives.”
- Reuters, “US’s dual role in global energy transition.”
- IEA, “Energy Security and Renewables.”
- Nature, “Analysis of the COP29 finance gap.”
- Wikipedia, “Tropical Forests Forever Facility.”
- Reuters, “Role of the private sector in climate finance.”
- Global Renewables Alliance, “Call to Action for COP30.”
- Friends of the Earth Latin America, “Indigenous Rights and Climate Justice.”
- IMF & World Bank, “Climate Finance and Debt Sustainability.”
